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Issue 04 · July 2, 2026 · Reviewed, then delivered
The semiconductor complex gave back 11% in two sessions while the index barely moved. That is rotation, not risk-off: trade the dealer map, not the narrative.
ES/SPY pin fade
742.09
-0.16%
Setup
Long on a hold and turn against the 740 put wall. Stop on a daily close below 735; 745 pin first target.
Dec 88/92 call spread
83.89
-0.75%
Setup
Cheap duration convexity while implied vol sits near its lows. Thesis breaks on a close below 85.
Healthcare breakout
159.25
-1.14%
Setup
Daily close above the 160.50 to 161.00 shelf confirms. Stop below 156.
S&P 500 (SPY) — Daily, last 48 sessions
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