Gold Futures (GC and MGC): Contract Math, Price Drivers and Sizing

Gold looks calmer than a tech index until you convert the move to dollars. A $20 move in an ounce of gold is $2,000 on one GC contract. That is why the first job in gold futures is contract math, and the second is knowing what tends to move the market so you aren't surprised by a scheduled report.

Contract specifications

• GC: 100 troy ounces, traded on COMEX (CME Group). A $1.00 move equals $100.
• Tick: $0.10 per ounce, which is $10 per tick.
• MGC (Micro Gold): 10 troy ounces. A $1.00 move is $10, and a tick is $1.
• Hours: CME Globex metals trade nearly around the clock on weekdays with a daily maintenance break. Confirm times and holiday changes in CME's schedule.
• Contract months: Many months are listed, and volume tends to concentrate in certain ones. Check the CME listing and watch volume to decide when to roll.
• Margin: collateral, not a loss cap, and it changes with volatility. Look up the current exchange figure.

At a hypothetical gold price of $2,000, one GC contract carries $200,000 of notional exposure and one MGC carries $20,000.

What moves gold

None of these is a reliable trading rule. They're the things to know so a scheduled move doesn't catch you off guard.

• Real interest rates: Gold pays no yield, so changes in inflation-adjusted yields are widely watched. The 10-year TIPS yield is a common reference. The relationship has broken down at times, so treat it as context.
• US dollar: Gold is priced in dollars, so dollar strength can weigh on foreign demand, and weakness can help. Watch the dollar index as a cross-check, not a signal.
• Inflation data: CPI releases can move gold, sometimes in a direction that looks backward at first because rates and inflation expectations react differently.
• Risk-off flows: Banking stress, geopolitical shocks or equity selloffs can draw money into gold. Whether it works as a hedge in a given episode is something to check against that episode's data, not assume.
• Central bank buying and ETF flows: The World Gold Council publishes demand reports, and ETF holdings are a sentiment proxy. Both are slow-moving background.

Session timing

Gold sees activity around the London open (roughly 3:00am to 6:00am ET) and during US morning hours when data like CPI, jobs and Fed events arrive. Asian hours can be quieter, with Shanghai influence. The CME normal-day settlement table lists gold's price window as 1:29 to 1:30pm ET; holidays can change it. That is a settlement reference, not the close of electronic trading. Those windows are starting points. Record your own fills and slippage by hour, and label time zones and holidays in your plan.

Stop and size math

Don't import ES stop distances. Measure gold's average true range on your timeframe, convert to dollars, and place a stop beyond normal noise. Then work backward to size. Hypothetical: you risk $100 on a trade with a 20-tick stop, which is $2.00 per ounce. On MGC that's $20 per contract, so five MGC equal $100. On GC the same stop is $200 per contract, which is already above your $100 limit. A smaller stop might fit one GC but may sit inside normal noise. Use MGC when the numbers don't work on GC.

Keep the dollar risk per trade the same across markets. Gold isn't safer just because it feels less speculative. Stop orders can also slip during data releases and settlement, so real risk can exceed the plan. The edge calculator is useful for checking reward-to-risk before you commit.

Event and structural risks

• FOMC and data days: Moves can come in seconds. Decide ahead whether you're flat, and write down the rule.
• Rolling: Futures prices for different months differ. If you hold long across months in a contango curve, roll costs can reduce returns, and the effect depends on the curve at the time. Check it before a multi-week hold.
• Weekend and overnight gaps: Positions held outside your main session can open away from your stop.
• Paper versus physical: COMEX futures settle in a financial system that can diverge from physical premiums during stress. This rarely matters for day trades and can matter for longer holds.

Where gold fits

Adding a second market only helps if you can run it by the same rules. A reasonable test is to journal gold trades separately for a stretch of simulated or small-size trading, compare slippage and results with your ES or NQ record, and look at whether losses cluster on the same days. Correlation between gold and equity futures changes across periods and can rise as well as fall in stress, so check it with data, not an article.

YMI's standard Key Price Level map is built for ES and NQ, using fixed levels anchored to the regular-session opening print. Applying a similar reference-level approach to gold would be your own work, and it needs its own testing. See the KPL strategy page for how the standard map is built. Prop firms differ on which contracts are allowed and how many, so confirm GC and MGC limits in the specific rule set before trading them.

Related reading: crude oil futures, ES futures, pairs trading and market regimes.