The danger on a CPI morning is not that the market moves. It is that it moves through your stop. A stop order becomes a market order when touched, so in a fast, thin market the fill can land well past the price you chose. That is the risk that scheduled releases add to ES and NQ, and the reason to decide what you will do before the release instead of at the release.
What a gap through your stop costs
The dollar math is simple. Multiply the points of slippage by the contract's point value.
| Contract | Value per point | 10 points of extra slippage, one contract |
|---|---|---|
| ES | $50 | $500 |
| MES | $5 | $50 |
| NQ | $20 | $200 |
| MNQ | $2 | $20 |
That is hypothetical, and the real number varies by event and liquidity. The point is that a stop you sized for a $200 loss can become a much larger loss when the release hits, and margin is collateral, not a cap on what you can lose.
Rank the events
Your next step
Build the daily map before the session.
See how ES and NQ Key Price Levels fit the daily plan. Follow the room, practice in SIM, and review what happened around each level.
Sort the calendar into tiers so you are not deciding from scratch every morning. This is a working classification, not a statistical ranking.
Tier 1 is the FOMC rate decision and press conference, CPI, and the monthly employment report (NFP). Tier 2 includes PPI, retail sales, PCE and GDP estimates. Tier 3 is the weekly claims, confidence surveys and housing data that you note but usually do not plan around. Your own review of past sessions should adjust the tiers, because a data point matters more when the market is focused on it.
Release times are usually stated in Eastern Time. CPI and NFP typically print at 8:30 AM ET, which is before the regular US equity cash open at 9:30 AM ET. FOMC statements are typically at 2:00 PM ET with a press conference after. Confirm every date and time on the Federal Reserve and BLS calendars, because schedules and holiday exceptions change.
Three valid plans, picked in advance
Before each Tier 1 event, write one of these into your plan.
Sit out. Be flat before the release and wait for the first reaction to settle. Pick this if your strategy has no tested behavior around news, or if a bad fill would threaten your daily loss limit. How long to wait is your decision, and a fixed rule such as waiting until the first fifteen minutes have passed is easier to follow than judging it live.
Reduce. Trade smaller, avoid new entries in the release window, and accept that your stop may not fill where you set it. Size is the only control you fully have.
Trade the event. Only if you have a written, tested method, and enough sample to know what slippage does to it. Pre-positioning before the number is a bet on a surprise. Waiting for the first spike and trading the secondary move has better defined risk but needs fast, reliable execution. Do not use SIM fills to judge it, since a simulated fill is not exchange queue or slippage validation.
FOMC days have phases
On an FOMC day the statement, the press conference and the market's reading of both can produce different moves in different directions, and the first move is sometimes reversed. I plan around three windows: the quiet period before the statement, the statement itself, and the press conference. If you cannot manage a position through all three, stay out of the ones where you cannot.
How the KPL fit on release days
The KPL levels are fixed reference prices anchored to the regular-session opening print, so they are not known before RTH opens. An 8:30 AM ET release comes before that anchor exists. Do not treat any level as finished before the open print. Once the day's levels are set, they do not move intraday, but they say nothing about what a news release will do to price. See KPL trading for how the levels are built.
A morning check that takes two minutes
- Open an official calendar and list today's releases with times in your timezone.
- Mark any Tier 1 event and write sit out, reduce, or trade it.
- Check whether it is a holiday or early-close session, since those have different schedules.
- Set your daily loss limit and decide in advance what ends the session.
A size rule of thumb such as cutting to half or three quarters on Tier 1 days is a risk preference, not a proven number. Test any version you choose on your own data and write it down.
Related reading
See FOMC Trading Strategy Guide, Pre-Market Preparation Guide and Market Regime and Position Sizing.
The Intro plan is $97 a month after a 7-day trial and includes the course, daily ES and NQ KPL reference levels, and the community. The event decision is still yours to make before each release.
About the Author
Founder, Young Money Investments · Quant Trader
Cameron trades ES, NQ, and futures across multiple market cycles. He founded Young Money Investments to teach systematic, data-driven trading and manages Magnum Opus Capital. His work emphasizes documented rules, risk controls, and review over outcome promises.
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