How KPL Levels Work in ES and NQ: A Worked Example

A level on a chart is only useful if you know where the trade is wrong, what it costs, and how often it has to work to pay. This article walks through that with a hypothetical ES example, so the numbers below are illustrations, not results.

What KPL levels are

KPL stands for Key Price Levels. They're fixed reference prices anchored to the regular session (RTH) opening print. The standard ES and NQ map has four levels, built from full-session and after-hours price travel. Once set, they don't move intraday. They aren't AI-predicted prices, institutional order-flow levels or secret support and resistance predictions. AI and model context is a separate input from the KPL calculation.

One practical consequence follows from the anchor. The opening print doesn't exist before the cash session opens (9:30am ET, with holiday exceptions), so nobody can hand you a completed anchored map before the open. You can prepare the plan and risk limits ahead of time, then mark the levels once the anchor is known. The KPL strategy page has the standard map details.

A hypothetical walk-through

Suppose ES trades near 6,000 and a level sits at 6,004. These numbers are made up for illustration and aren't calculated from the KPL map. You've decided in advance to look for a rejection short at that level, with the next level at 5,996 as your target.

Reward to risk is 7.5 / 4.0, about 1.9. Breakeven win rate before costs is risk / (risk + reward) = 4 / 11.5, about 34.8%. If the stop slips one point, risk becomes 5 and breakeven rises to 5 / 12.5 = 40%. Commissions and slippage on the entry push it higher again. The point of the calculation is to learn the break-even rate your plan needs before you trade it. It doesn't predict what you'll get. ES moves $12.50 per 0.25 tick, MES $1.25, NQ $5 and MNQ $0.50, so run the same sheet for the contract you actually trade.

Using the levels in a session

1. After the opening print, mark all four levels on your ES and NQ charts.
2. Decide in writing what you'll do at each: look for rejection, look for acceptance beyond it, or stand aside.
3. Wait for price to reach the level. Entering early adds risk with no information.
4. Define the stop and target in points and dollars before you enter.
5. Log the touch, your action and the outcome, whether or not you traded.

Whether to fade a level or trade through it is your judgment, and a level alone doesn't settle it. I'd treat any claim that levels produce higher-probability outcomes as unproven until you've checked it against your own records.

Test whether the levels matter

Don't take my word or anyone's. Because the levels are published and fixed, you can check them honestly. Over at least 20 sessions, define a touch (for example, price trades within two points of a level) and a reaction (for example, price moves at least four points away before closing beyond the level by more than two). Record both for every touch, including the ones you didn't trade. Then draw a comparison set of arbitrary lines the same distance apart and score them the same way. If the KPL touches don't behave differently from your comparison lines, that's a finding. If they do, you still need enough trades and out-of-sample sessions before calling it an edge. Thirty trades isn't proof, and a simulated fill doesn't validate queue position or slippage.

On automation

Pro includes bot access. How the KPL bot behaves, and which variants exist, is documented on the KPL bot specs page. I won't summarize its logic here or imply any result. Whether automation is allowed at all depends on your account's rules, so read those first. Intro and VIP don't include bots.

To try the daily levels and course yourself, the Intro trial is 7 days free, then $97/month, and includes daily ES and NQ KPL and the community.