Top-Down Analysis for ES and NQ Futures: A Macro to Session Checklist

Why the Session Chart Alone Leaves Gaps

A trader who looks only at today's chart can mark every support and resistance line correctly and still get run over by something that was on the calendar all week. A scheduled data release, a weekly high sitting 3 points above an entry, an expiration day with unusual volume: none of it shows on a 5-minute chart until it is already moving price. Top-down analysis means working from the largest context down to the trade decision, so the setup you take has already been checked against the things that tend to interrupt it.

I want to be clear about what this does and does not do. Context does not predict direction. It tells you which days deserve smaller size or no trade, and which reference prices other traders are likely watching. Whether any specific combination improves your results is something your own journal has to show.

Layer 1: Scheduled Macro Context

Start with what is on the calendar, not with an opinion about the economy.

• Economic releases. Note any release at 8:30 AM ET (CPI, jobs report, PPI, retail sales) and 10:00 AM ET. Mark the time, and decide before the session whether you trade through it. A standard rule is to stand aside from a few minutes before until the first spike settles, but the exact window is your decision.
• Central bank events. Meeting days and press conferences change how price behaves around the announcement. I would not turn the rate cycle into a simple bullish or bearish rule. Treat the event day itself as a volatility risk.
• Earnings from index heavyweights. Large-cap reports can move NQ and ES more than the day's macro data. Check whose earnings land before the open or after the close.
• Options expiration. Monthly expiration falls on the third Friday. Quarterly expiration coincides with the equity index futures roll, but do not assume roll dates. Confirm them against the CME product calendar for the contract you trade.

Layer 2: Weekly and Daily Reference Prices

These are the prices many participants have on their charts, so they are worth knowing whether or not you trade them.

• Prior week's high, low, and close. Where does price open the week relative to that range?
• Prior day's high, low, and close. Where did it close inside its own range?
• Overnight high and low. Globex trades nearly around the clock Sunday evening through Friday afternoon, with a daily break, so check the CME schedule and holiday calendar for your product. Note where the overnight range sits relative to the prior day.
• Weekly pivots. A standard calculation uses last week's high (H), low (L), and close (C): pivot P = (H + L + C) / 3, R1 = 2P - L, S1 = 2P - H. With a hypothetical H of 6800, L of 6700, and C of 6760, P = 6753.33, R1 = 6806.67, and S1 = 6706.67. Whether pivots matter for your setups is an empirical question to answer in your journal.
• Volume profile levels. Point of control and value area edges from a prior month or week show where the most volume traded. They are reference prices, not guarantees of a reaction.

Layer 3: Session Context and Where KPL Fits

The session layer is the overnight range, the first 30 minutes after the regular session opens at 9:30 AM ET, and the KPL levels. KPL are fixed reference prices anchored to the regular-session opening print. The standard ES and NQ map has four levels, built from full-session and after-hours price travel, and they do not move once set. Because the anchor is the opening print, the completed levels cannot be known before 9:30 AM ET, so any plan written earlier has to leave that step blank. Read more on the KPL page. They are not AI-predicted prices and not order-flow levels, and the model context some members receive is separate from the KPL calculation.

Once the levels exist, you can note which ones sit near a weekly or prior-day price from Layer 2. I call that confluence, and I treat it as a reason to look harder, not as a probability upgrade. The only way to know if confluence helps is to tag those trades in your journal and compare outcomes over a large enough sample, with costs included.

The Daily Checklist

Before the open (about 10 to 15 minutes):

1. Calendar: list every release, speaker, and big earnings report, with times in ET. Mark no-trade windows.
2. Weekly context: where price is relative to last week's high, low, and close.
3. Daily context: prior day's range and close, plus the overnight high and low.
4. Draft a conditional plan, for example: if price holds above the prior day's close after the open, I look for X; if it trades below, I look for Y.

After the 9:30 AM ET opening print:

1. Mark the KPL levels once the anchor is known and note any that sit near a Layer 2 price.
2. Finish the written plan in three lines: the conditions you are trading, the levels you are watching, and your maximum loss for the day.

What to Review Weekly

Count how many trades followed the checklist and how many did not, and compare results between the two groups. If the sample is small, say so. Thirty trades is not a statistically proven edge, and a few good weeks with context filters can easily be luck. VIP adds model context to the daily material, and you can compare it with your own checklist on the VIP tier page. It is context for your decisions, not an assured outcome.